“I was shocked to see how Dems have gained on Party ID per Gallup. Dems lead by 7 pts vs. a tie at the start of the year. Looks a lot more like the 2018 cycle than 2022. Indeed, Dems have gained House seats in all midterms since 1990 when party id looks like what Gallup has.”
That summary from CNN’s Harry Enten, posted on X, captures why the latest Gallup numbers should worry Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.
According to Gallup, Democrats now hold a seven-point advantage in party identification over Republicans. That’s a sharp turn from earlier this year, when the two parties were tied.
Enten, a senior data reporter for CNN, didn’t hide his reaction. “It was shocking to me,” he said during a segment with John Berman.
He explained that this kind of shift in party identification has historically resulted in one outcome: House seat gains for Democrats.
Party identification, measured by asking Americans which party they align with, isn’t just trivia.
Over decades, it’s been a reliable early signal of which party is likely to gain or lose ground in the midterms.
A Sharp Swing Toward Democrats
Enten highlighted that in Gallup’s first-quarter data for 2025, the two parties were dead even.
But by the third quarter, Democrats had pulled ahead by seven points. That represents what Enten called a “seven-point movement to the left.”
He noted that Gallup isn’t the only pollster showing this trend.
Quinnipiac University’s polling, for instance, moved from showing a one-point Republican edge earlier in the year to a three-point Democratic advantage more recently.
The direction, Enten emphasized, is consistent: Democrats are gaining ground.
That movement comes after a rare period when Republicans actually led in Gallup’s party identification measure heading into the 2024 presidential election.
But that lead, as Enten put it, is “no more.” The Republican advantage has been wiped out, and Democrats are now clearly ahead.
What History Suggests
Enten compared the current numbers to past midterm cycles to put the shift in perspective.
In 2018, Democrats were ahead by four points in Gallup’s party identification measure, and they went on to gain 40 seats in the House of Representatives.
In contrast, heading into the 2022 midterms, Democrats had only a one-point advantage and lost control of the House.
“It looks much more like what we had going into the 2018 midterm cycle,” Enten said.
“They’re actually doing better at this point than they were doing during the 2018 cycle.”
That historical pattern, he explained, is strikingly consistent. Since 1990, Democrats have gained House seats in every midterm election where Gallup’s data looked like it does now.
When Democrats hold a large advantage in party identification, they tend to perform strongly in House races.
When the margin is small or Republicans are even or ahead, Democrats typically lose ground.
Enten pointed to decades of data to make the point. When Republicans gained House seats, Democrats were ahead by only about one point in Gallup’s measure. When Democrats gained seats, they had an average advantage of around eight points.
The current seven-point lead, he said, puts them squarely in the “Democrats gaining seats” zone.
“If this seven-point lead holds in the next year and it averages out next year in 2026, Democrats plus seven, there is no historical precedent for Republicans actually getting House seats,” Enten said.
“The Democrats gain in every year that looks like what Gallup shows right now.”
A Warning Sign for MAGA Republicans
For Republicans, and particularly the pro-Trump faction shaping much of the party’s message, this shift should set off alarms.
Party identification isn’t a prediction of specific races, but it helps capture broader sentiment among voters. If the public mood continues trending in Democrats’ favor, it could result in a midterm backlash similar to what happened in 2018, when Democrats swept suburban districts and made major inroads with independent voters.
Enten made clear that Democrats are not just maintaining ground, they are improving steadily throughout the year.
“Democrats [have] been gaining throughout this year compared to what we saw back in 2021, in which we saw Republicans gaining during the year,” he said. In other words, the momentum is moving in the opposite direction this time.
This turnaround also suggests that the Democratic brand, which faced skepticism in 2024, has regained some strength.
The reasons could range from voter reaction to Republican messaging to shifting attitudes among independents and younger voters. Gallup’s survey relies on self-reported affiliation, meaning it captures how Americans feel about their partisan identity, not just how they vote.
A Data-Driven Outlook
While the 2026 midterms are still a year away, the Gallup trend offers one of the clearest early indicators of where public sentiment is heading.
Enten’s analysis implies that unless something dramatic changes, the political environment could favor Democrats.
“This number right here for Democrats may be one of the better numbers they’ve seen in some time,” Berman added, emphasizing how unusual a seven-point gap is in recent polling history.
To put it simply: when Democrats have this kind of edge in party identification, they almost always end up with more seats in Congress after the next midterm. When that edge narrows, Republicans benefit.
This kind of consistent trend in Gallup’s data could nudge both parties to rethink how they approach 2026.
For Republicans, especially those aligned with the MAGA wing, it might be a sign that their messaging isn’t landing the way it did in 2024. For Democrats, it could be the early signs of another wave like 2018.
If this gap holds, we might see once again that when voters start leaning one way in party ID, actual election results tend to follow.