Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, has been a longtime supporter of Tesla.
But his confidence in Elon Musk’s timeline for robotaxis has cooled off considerably. In a recent appearance on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Domination,”
Gerber voiced strong doubts about Tesla’s self-driving ambitions.
Musk claimed at the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos that Tesla’s robotaxis would be widespread in the U.S. by the end of the year. But Gerber waved off the timeline.
“Every goal from Elon is by the end of the year. Every year, he has a bunch of goals that are by the end of the year that never happen,” he said.
Gerber added that while Tesla is talking big, competitors like Waymo are already delivering.
“You can go outside right here in Santa Monica right now and take Waymos left and right. They’re everywhere. They’re very successful. Robo taxi is solved, and it’s solved by Waymo, and they’re scaling rapidly.”
He also criticized Tesla’s current self-driving system, which remains at Level 2 autonomy.
“Until it is proven, it’s a Level 2 system,” Gerber said. Even after installing the latest software update on his own Tesla, he said he’s still running into issues.
“I still think it’s not done, and I don’t think it’s solved at Tesla.”
Robotaxis Could Turn Into a Race to the Bottom
Gerber has spent years thinking about the economics of autonomous ride-hailing, especially with investments in both Tesla and Google.
He believes the big hurdle is still cost.
“It only costs about a dollar a mile or less to buy a Tesla and just drive it around. So, until the cost is below a dollar a mile…it’s still expensive to ride share relative to owning your own car.”
Once costs come down, he warned, the market could become flooded.
“You have no barriers to entry. You have lots of competitors that have Nvidia-based systems that will all be equipped in the next five years.”
So how do you make money in such a competitive space? Gerber pointed to ads.
“That’s advertising. And that’s where Google is also in the lead. You’ll probably be watching YouTube in the car. There’ll be ads on the car or in the car.”
Don’t Expect Humanoid Robots Anytime Soon
At Davos, Musk also said robots could outnumber humans someday. Gerber wasn’t buying it. He thinks robotics will be huge in industrial applications, but not in homes.
“There might be tons of robots in the future, but they’re not going to look like humans. They’re going to look like the issues they’re trying to solve,” he said.
Gerber used the example of his son’s tennis robot, which lobs balls but doesn’t resemble a person swinging a racket.
He also pointed out how complex it is to mimic human movement.
“Your feet are very, very difficult to make…this idea that we’re gonna have robots walking around like humans…just doesn’t make a lot of sense. That vision I don’t see.”
On SpaceX: Excitement, but Valuation Concerns
When asked about reports of SpaceX preparing for an $800 billion IPO, Gerber welcomed the news for employees but questioned the number.
“We couldn’t be more excited at our firm for our clients…but the valuation doesn’t make sense.”
He made it clear he wouldn’t be buying in at that price but still praised the company’s track record.
“It’s a wonderful company. What that value will be will be determined by the market.”
He also pushed back on the idea that SpaceX suffers from “key man risk” like Tesla might.
“SpaceX [is] really run by Gwynne Shotwell…with or without Elon. Elon, of course, is a huge asset to the company, but I think the reality is SpaceX performs pretty well without him.”
As for Tesla, Gerber says it’s fallen behind in the last year.
“He’s having a lot of success in certain areas of his business…and some of it’s not, and that’s where Tesla is.”
Despite Musk’s claims and Tesla’s trillion-dollar pay package for its CEO, Gerber says Tesla is no longer a top priority for Musk.
“He seems to be really focused on xAI right now…Tesla’s kind of like the third thing on the list.”
From Gerber’s perspective, Tesla still has potential, but it needs more than ambitious timelines and bold promises to stay competitive in a space that’s moving fast, with or without Elon Musk.
IMAGE CREDIT: “Elon Musk” by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Image adjusted for layout.