The U.S. labor market may not be as strong as it looks on the surface.
“Everything is not fine,” wealth manager Kevin Malone wrote in a recent post on X.
He added, “If you exclude Healthcare jobs, the U.S. Labor Market has declined for 24 months.”
His comment points to a growing debate over whether headline job numbers are masking deeper weakness across much of the economy.
Job Growth Concentrated In Healthcare
Malone shared a chart showing cumulative payroll job growth by sector since early 2024.
The blue line, which tracks healthcare and private education, climbs steadily and ends up showing about 1.6 million to 1.7 million jobs added over the period.
The red line, which reflects everything outside healthcare, moves the opposite direction. By late 2025 and early 2026, it slips below zero.
Taken together, the chart suggests most of the job gains over the past two years have come from healthcare and related fields.
Outside that area, hiring has largely stalled and, at times, moved backward.
Several major industries appear to have struggled over the same period.
Manufacturing, retail trade, professional and business services, information, and other sectors have either stalled or posted declines.
While some industries saw modest gains at different points, they were not enough to offset losses elsewhere.
Major Downward Revisions To Payroll Data
That view gained new attention after the Labor Department released a major revision to employment data.
According to Reuters, the U.S. economy created 862,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously estimated.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the final benchmark revision was slightly smaller than an earlier projected reduction of 911,000 jobs, but still significant.
Economists had expected the revision to fall between 750,000 and 900,000 jobs.
The updated data were based on revisions to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the first quarter.
The change also affected seasonally adjusted figures.
Reuters reported that total nonfarm employment growth for 2025 was revised down to 181,000 jobs from the previously reported 584,000.
In plain terms, job growth was much weaker than earlier reports suggested.
Revisions of this size are not unprecedented, but they can reshape how investors, policymakers, and the public view the health of the economy.
Strong headline payroll gains can signal resilience. But if most of those gains are concentrated in one sector, it may raise questions about how broad-based that strength really is.
Why Healthcare Is Carrying The Numbers
Healthcare has consistently added jobs while other sectors have struggled.
Hospitals, clinics, and care facilities are still hiring, in part because more Americans are getting older and need medical services.
At the same time, many providers have been short-staffed for years. Private education has also seen some job growth, though not nearly on the same scale.
Outside those areas, however, the picture looks more uneven.
Higher interest rates over the past two years have pressured interest-sensitive sectors such as construction and parts of manufacturing.
Corporate cost-cutting and technology shifts have also weighed on professional services and information-related roles.
Malone’s statement, “If you exclude Healthcare jobs, the U.S. Labor Market has declined for 24 months,” reflects this concentration.
If the majority of net job creation is coming from one corner of the economy, it can result in a labor market that feels weaker for many workers outside that space.
That may help explain why some Americans report difficulty finding jobs even when overall unemployment remains relatively low.
Job openings in healthcare do not always match the skills, experience or geographic location of workers in other industries.
A Narrower And More Fragile Labor Market
The broader takeaway from the data and revisions is not that the labor market has collapsed, but that it may be narrower and more fragile than topline figures suggest.
Whether that trend continues will depend on several factors, including interest rates, business investment, and consumer demand.
For now, the debate underscores a simple point echoed in Malone’s words: “Everything is not fine.”