For the first time in over two decades, the U.S. didn’t export a single soybean to China during October, a dramatic development that marks the fifth consecutive month without any U.S. soybean shipments to its former top buyer.
The news has sent ripples through rural communities in the Midwest, where many farmers are now rethinking their political loyalties just months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
A Trade Relationship Gone Cold
As of October 2025, China accounted for just 19% of U.S. soybean exports, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data.
That’s a massive drop from the typical 40% to 50% share China held for much of the past two decades.
The U.S. Soybean Export Council said American farmers export about 55% of all soybeans they produce, mostly in whole bean form used for animal feed.
“China is the largest importer in the world, unequivocally,” said Rosalind Leeck, managing director at the council.
“But the rest of the world is growing. It’s a great opportunity throughout the rest of the world.”
But that opportunity hasn’t softened the blow in heartland states like Iowa and Illinois, where soybean farming is a major livelihood.
China’s pullback is the latest hit in a years-long trade feud that started in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese imports.
China retaliated by slashing soybean purchases, and though some trade resumed later, the relationship never fully recovered.
Farmers Are Frustrated
CNN’s John King recently returned to Iowa for his “All Over the Map” series to check in with rural voters. What he found was a base that’s still conservative, but less loyal.
At the Eversole cattle farm in rural Kellerton, Shannon Eversole said she reluctantly backed Trump in 2024 after initially supporting Nikki Haley.
One year into his second term, she graded him “three out of five.”
“The economy feels a little better and illegal immigration is way down,” she told CNN, but added that Trump’s Argentina beef bailout felt like a betrayal of his “America First” promise.
She also criticized Trump’s constant fights and said her Republican congressman, Zach Nunn, wasn’t doing enough for family farmers.
When asked if she would consider voting for a Democrat, she replied, “Of course. I think that you have to vote for the person that best meets your goals.”
Red States, Blue Shifts?
In Des Moines, suburban voter Betsy Sarkone told CNN she had considered voting for Joe Biden before Trump won the Republican nomination.
But she eventually came around to Trump due to frustration with border issues. Even so, her shift reveals how volatile the electorate has become.
The Democratic Party sees an opening. In Louisa County, where Trump won 70% of the vote last cycle, new Democratic chairwoman Michelle Pegg is working to register voters and rebuild rural trust.
“You want the office, you have to sway the voters,” she said.
Nationally, recent polling paints a grim picture for Trump: just 39% of voters approve of his job performance, with similar ratings on the economy and immigration, two key issues for rural Americans. Health care and foreign affairs score even lower.
New Buyers Step In, But Not Enough
While China fades, other countries are picking up the slack. Mexico is now the second-largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, holding 14.67% of the market.
Egypt has jumped to third with 11.22% through October, a nearly 400% increase since 2017.
Countries like Germany, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh are also setting record-high imports.
Still, the hole China left behind is undeniable. From January through October 2017, the top 10 countries accounted for nearly 87% of U.S. soybean exports, mostly thanks to China.
In 2025, that share dropped to 79%.
Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, recently emphasized the need for a wider global strategy.
According to Forbes, in an email from Saudi Arabia, he said, “They seem to be a place where quality and sustainability are both something they are quite interested in.”
Looking Ahead to November
The upcoming 2026 midterms will decide control of Congress and key state offices, including all four of Iowa’s House seats, a U.S. Senate race, and the governorship.
While Trump still holds sway in many counties, his grip is not as firm.
Chris Mudd, a solar CEO and longtime Trump supporter in Shell Rock, told CNN, “My life is similar, but my optimism is greater because I believe the things that Trump is doing are good for our country.”
Still, he admitted Trump’s support feels slightly lower than before.
With months of zero soybean trade with China and cracks appearing in the MAGA base, a political shift could be brewing in the very states that once powered Trump’s rise.
As one Iowa farmer put it, change might just come down a gravel road this November, when voters head to the polls for the 2026 midterm elections.