Economist Peter Schiff says a common claim about inflation in the U.S. doesn’t match the current federal spending numbers.
He argued that while some commentators blame former President Joe Biden’s spending for the inflation spike earlier in the decade, federal spending remains higher now under President Donald Trump.
Schiff raised the issue in a post on X while reacting to a television segment discussing inflation during the Biden years.
“A guest on @EveningEdit blamed the high inflation that we experienced before Trump on Biden’s big spending,” Schiff wrote.
“He then thanked God for Trump’s policies, which he claimed eliminated inflation. But even without the war, federal spending is higher under Trump than it was under Biden.”
His comment touches on a broader argument that has dominated economic and political debate for years: whether large government spending programs were responsible for the surge in inflation that followed the pandemic.
During the Biden administration, critics frequently blamed stimulus spending and government programs for fueling rising prices.
Now that inflation has cooled significantly, some supporters of the current administration credit Trump-era policies for bringing inflation down.
Schiff’s point is that those two claims don’t fit neatly together if federal spending remains elevated.
Recent fiscal data suggest government borrowing and spending pressures remain historically high, regardless of which party occupies the White House.
National Debt Rose More Than $2 Trillion In Trump’s First Year Back
The federal government’s balance sheet illustrates how quickly spending pressures have accumulated.
According to calculations shared with Fortune by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the U.S. national debt increased by about $2.25 trillion during Trump’s first year back in office.
That increase put the national debt at about $38.4 trillion by early January 2026.
Looking at the full calendar year of 2025, the debt grew about $2.29 trillion.
Budget watchdogs and economists say the speed of borrowing is raising concerns about the country’s long-term finances.
Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, said the speed of debt accumulation has become difficult to ignore.
“If it seems like we are adding debt faster than ever, that’s because we are,” Peterson said.
The jump in federal debt from $37 trillion to $38 trillion in just two months during late 2025 marked one of the fastest expansions outside of the pandemic era.
Debt Growth Has Accelerated Across Administrations
The rise in federal debt didn’t start when Trump returned to office.
Data from the Peterson Foundation shows that the five largest yearly debt increases in recent years occurred during the Trump and Biden administrations.
One of the largest non‑pandemic jumps came in 2023, when about $2.6 trillion was added during Biden’s presidency.
Trump still holds the single largest annual increase during the pandemic year of 2020, when emergency relief spending pushed debt growth to roughly $4.6 trillion.
Taken together, the two administrations account for five of the six largest annual debt increases in recent history.
Economists say the numbers illustrate a larger structural issue: government spending and borrowing have been expanding faster than the economy itself for years.
Debt has been rising faster in recent years than it did under earlier presidents.
Annual increases during the Trump and Biden years have often been much larger than those seen during President Barack Obama’s administration and generally higher than the levels recorded during President George W. Bush’s time in office.
Interest Payments Are Becoming A Major Budget Pressure
Another issue in the spending debate is the rising cost of paying interest on the national debt.
As the debt has grown, interest payments have become one of the fastest‑rising costs in the federal budget.
Net interest costs reached about $970 billion during fiscal year 2025. When broader measures are included, government calculations show total interest expenses crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time.
Budget analysts say those payments are likely to remain above $1 trillion annually going forward.
That creates a difficult situation for policymakers because interest costs cannot easily be reduced without lowering the total debt or dramatically changing interest rates.
Tariffs And New Proposals Face Budget Questions
Trump has argued that tariffs on imports could help generate revenue and reduce the debt burden.
Treasury data shows tariffs are producing significantly more income than in previous years, with estimates ranging between $300 billion and $400 billion annually.
However, economists note that those sums cover only a fraction of federal spending and even fall short of the government’s annual interest payments.
At the same time, the administration has floated a proposal to distribute a $2,000 “dividend” to Americans funded by tariff revenue.
Independent estimates suggest such a program could cost around $600 billion each year, potentially increasing the deficit unless offset by spending cuts or new revenue sources.
Why The Spending Argument Still Matters
The debate highlighted by Schiff reflects a broader tension in American economic politics.
Politicians often blame inflation or fiscal problems on previous administrations, but federal spending has continued growing under leaders from both parties.
Economists say that trend raises a fundamental question about the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy.
Markets have already started responding to the scale of government borrowing, with Treasury yields rising as investors demand higher returns to absorb large volumes of new debt.
Meanwhile, polling suggests the public remains concerned about the issue.
Surveys sponsored by the Peterson Foundation show roughly 82% of voters say the national debt is an important national problem.
Despite that widespread concern, there remains little agreement in Washington about how to slow spending or reduce borrowing.
For now, the federal government’s finances continue moving in the same direction.
And as Schiff pointed out, the political narrative surrounding spending and inflation doesn’t always match the underlying numbers.
IMAGE CREDIT: “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Image adjusted for layout.