Paul Singer, founder and CEO of Elliott Investment Management, isn’t one to sugarcoat things.
During a recent episode of the “In Good Company” podcast, host Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, asked Singer about the state of today’s stock market.
Singer didn’t hesitate: “Just about as risky as I have ever seen.”
Singer, 80, built Elliott into a $72 billion powerhouse known for activist investing and strict risk management.
He’s spent decades warning about threats others overlook, and he isn’t backing down now.
His concerns span everything from government bailouts to overvalued tech stocks and crypto’s threat to the U.S. dollar.
Too Much Risk, Too Little Fear
“Leverage is building and building, risk-taking is building,” Singer said.
He blames years of near-zero interest rates and excessive government spending, especially during and after the pandemic, for lulling investors into thinking markets will always be rescued.
“People [have been] lulled into thinking they’ll always be bailed out.”
He specifically called out the hype around artificial intelligence.
While acknowledging its potential, Singer said, “This AI is way over its skis in terms of practical value.”
Crypto and the Dollar
Singer also warned about the long-term effects of government support for cryptocurrencies, which he sees as a direct challenge to traditional currency systems.
“To the extent that governments embrace cryptos… they are embracing alternatives to sovereign money,” he said.
That, he added, could erode the U.S. dollar’s standing as the world’s reserve currency: “It makes my head spin.”
Why He Doesn’t Lose Money
Singer’s cautious view isn’t just talk. His firm is known for losing money in only two years since it launched in 1977.
That discipline was shaped by painful early failures.
“I was long stocks that I was certain would go up… and I held them on margin,” he recalled of the 1974 bear market.
“At one point, it was down 88%.” That experience pushed him to build Elliott with one guiding rule: don’t lose money.
“You can’t get bored by not losing serious money,” he said.
No Celebrations, Just Discipline
Despite his success, Singer said he doesn’t find investing fun. “Skiing is fun. Snowmobiling is great fun. Sailing is fun,” he said.
“We never have a position profit celebration. Never. No cake, no champagne.”
But that doesn’t mean he’s slowing down. “Till you can’t do it anymore,” he said when asked how long he plans to keep going.
Advice for the Next Generation
Singer also offered a bit of unconventional advice to young people interested in finance: skip the business degree.
“They should not take business courses in college,” he said. “They should take as much history, political science, philosophy, religion as they can fit in.”
He thinks learning about history and big ideas helps you handle real-life challenges better than jumping straight into business classes.
Decades of Experience, Same Warning Today
Singer’s main point is that markets are shaky, prices are too high, and the backup plans people count on might not actually be there.
“In today’s world especially… experience and wisdom is so needed,” he said.
And with decades of both, Singer is still using them to warn those who will listen. His message to investors: be careful, stay sharp, and don’t assume the safety net will catch you.