Consumer confidence in the U.S. has taken a major hit, falling to levels not seen since 2014, even lower than at the worst moments of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fox Business reported that, according to new data from The Conference Board, the consumer confidence index dropped to 84.5 in January, down from a revised 94.2 in December.
This marks the lowest reading since May 2014, when it hit 82.2.
“Confidence collapsed in January as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
“All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014, surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”
Widespread Drop in Confidence
The slump in confidence is being felt across the board. Consumers are more worried about current business conditions, job prospects, and their own financial futures.
The present situation index, which reflects how Americans view the labor market and business climate today, fell by 9.9 points to 113.7.
The expectations index, which looks at income, jobs, and business conditions over the next six months, dropped points to 65.1.
That’s well below the 80-point mark that usually signals a recession may be coming.
These declines weren’t limited to one political party or demographic.
The drop in optimism was broad-based, affecting Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike, according to Fox Business.
Among political groups, Independents saw the sharpest decline.
Consumers of all ages and income levels reported lower confidence, though younger Americans under 35 remained slightly more optimistic than older adults.
Gen Z respondents were the most positive, while households earning under $15,000 reported the lowest levels of optimism.
Recession Worries Grow
Even household expectations took a hit. While slightly more people said their current financial situation had improved, fewer believed things would get better in the near future.
The number of Americans who think a recession is “very likely” ticked up, while more respondents also said the U.S. is already in a recession.
The release of this data comes as the Federal Reserve prepares for its latest meeting, with many expecting interest rates to remain unchanged.
Trump Declares Inflation Defeated
At the same time, President Donald Trump recently declared at the World Economic Forum in Davos that inflation is essentially no longer a problem.
The U.S. has “virtually no inflation,” Trump said.
“Grocery prices, energy prices, airfares, mortgage rates, rent, and car payments are all coming down, and they’re coming down fast.”
But the reality facing many Americans tells a different story.
Even Fox Business acknowledged that throwing a Super Bowl party this year is slightly more expensive.
According to a Wells Fargo report cited by Fox Business, hosting a 10-person Super Bowl gathering will cost about $140, a 1.6% increase over last year.
Shrimp is up 8.1%, beef is averaging $10.08 per pound, and even vegetables like broccoli and cauliflower are up 4%.
Mixed Signals on Prices
There are some exceptions. Fresh chicken wings are slightly cheaper, and airfares have dipped by about 3% year over year.
Gas prices have also fallen 10% compared to January 2025, with a gallon of regular averaging $2.81, according to Fox Business.
But grocery prices overall are still climbing, up 2.4% over the past year. Beef and veal alone jumped 16%, and coffee spiked 20% due to bad weather in Brazil and Vietnam.
Electricity bills are also up nearly 7%, partly because of increased demand from AI data centers.
“To say the U.S. has ‘virtually no inflation’ is factually incorrect and a classic Trump overstatement,” said Thomas Ryan, an economist at Capital Economics.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, also pushed back on Trump’s claims.
He said inflation remains “uncomfortably high,” especially for lower- and middle-income Americans, citing ongoing high costs for essentials like groceries, electricity, childcare, and healthcare.
Tariffs May Be Making Things Worse
Economists have also pointed to Trump’s tariff policies as a factor driving prices higher.
According to Yale University’s Budget Lab, the effective U.S. tariff rate is now 17.5%, the highest since 1932.
John Riccio, a Yale policy analyst, estimated these tariffs could cost the average American household an extra $1,300 to $1,700 in 2026.
Disconnect Between Messaging and Reality
Inflation has slowed in some areas, but most consumers still aren’t feeling much relief.
Confidence has dropped across political lines, age groups, and income levels.
Small price increases, like the 1.6% rise in Super Bowl food costs, reflect deeper concerns.
People continue to face high grocery bills, utility costs, and financial uncertainty, even as gas and mortgage rates decline.
This gap between public statements and lived experience is fueling doubt.
With the consumer confidence index falling below even pandemic lows, Americans aren’t just anxious about inflation; they’re questioning where the economy is going and whether their own situations are likely to improve any time soon.