Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, drew wide attention this week when he responded to a CNBC article about the soaring U.S. trade deficit with a sharp line: “The Collapse Of America was as dumb as you thought it would be.”
The CNBC report showed that the U.S. trade deficit surged by 94.6% in November to $56.8 billion, up from $29.2 billion in October.
That marked the largest monthly jump in over 30 years, despite President Donald Trump’s claims that his tariff policies were slashing the trade gap.
Trade Deficit Spikes Despite Tariff Agenda
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the deficit with the European Union alone grew by $8.2 billion, while the gap with China actually declined slightly by about $1 billion to $13.9 billion.
On a year-over-year basis, the trade deficit reached $839.5 billion through November, up 4% compared to the same period in 2024.
This sharp reversal came just a month after the trade deficit had hit its lowest point since early 2009.
Trump had previously touted his tariff strategy as a key way to fix trade imbalances.
Speaking at a midterm rally in Iowa, he said, “In one year, I’ve slashed [the] gaping trade deficit by a staggering 77%.” But the latest data paints a different picture.
NewsNation’s Alicia Nieves, reporting from Wall Street, explained the numbers on Morning in America.
“The whole idea of the president’s tariff agenda is to reduce the trade deficit. He has said over and over that it is unfair. But what we saw in November was the exact opposite,” she said.
Exports Down, Imports Up
In November, U.S. exports fell nearly 4%, meaning fewer American-made goods were sold abroad.
At the same time, imports rose 5%, as Americans bought more goods from overseas. That combination is what fueled the dramatic spike in the deficit.
The EU accounted for the largest jump among trade partners, as the deficit with the 27-country bloc nearly doubled from $7.9 billion to $14 billion in a single month.
That rise came even after a U.S.-EU tariff deal last August set most European goods at a 15% tariff rate, meant to stabilize the situation.
Impact on the Economy
Economists are now warning that the widening trade deficit could weigh on overall economic growth.
Nieves noted that the jump could reduce fourth-quarter GDP estimates to about 3%, down from 4.4% in Q3.
Meanwhile, key commodities like aluminum and gold are also flashing warning signs.
Nieves said U.S. companies and consumers are paying 40% more for aluminum compared to last June, after Trump doubled tariffs on the metal to spur domestic production. But the move has caused a supply shortfall instead.
“Aluminum is used for cars, planes, military hardware, and even canned goods. The price is coming up, and that really could become a problem,” she said.
Gold, often seen as a safe haven in uncertain times, hit record highs in recent days, fueled by market concerns over the long-term effects of the tariff strategy and broader economic instability.
Public Response
Spencer Hakimian’s post captured frustration that’s been brewing across parts of the finance and policy world, where some see recent economic claims falling out of sync with reality.
While Trump’s supporters argue that tariffs are meant to reshape global trade over the long haul, the recent figures show the short-term results aren’t aligning with that goal.
Critics point out that instead of reducing trade imbalances, the policies may be raising costs for American manufacturers and households.
Rising import costs, supply chain pressure, and elevated commodity prices could make it harder for GDP growth to stay on track.
With the 2026 election season approaching, trade policy and economic results will remain in the spotlight, and so will pointed reactions like Hakimian’s.