For much of the past year, headlines have celebrated what was often described as a “fantastic year” for markets.
Stock indexes hit new highs, corporate profits surged, and political leaders pointed to headline GDP numbers as proof the economy was humming along.
But economist Justin Wolfers says that story leaves out a crucial piece of context.
When you step back and look at global markets, the U.S. performance looks far less impressive.
According to Wolfers, global stocks outside the United States rose about 30% over the past year. U.S. stocks gained roughly 18%.
That gap means American investors underperformed the rest of the world by about 12 percentage points, even as domestic coverage framed the year as a major win.
“If America’s had a fantastic year, how much do you reckon we’ve grown if the rest of the world grew 30%?” Wolfers said on The 11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle on MS NOW.
“Well, in fact, we’ve grown 18%. We’ve underperformed the global market by 12%.”
He added that compared with other major economies, U.S. stock performance was among the weakest, calling it “a miserable year for the American investor, if you know enough to compare them to other investors.”
Why One Strong GDP Quarter Doesn’t Tell The Whole Story
Wolfers argues that part of the confusion comes from an overreliance on a narrow slice of economic data.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly highlighted strong GDP figures as evidence that his policies are working, pointing in particular to a robust third quarter in 2025.
The problem, Wolfers says, is that one quarter does not define the overall health of the economy.
“The positive numbers that the president keeps talking about are actually for the third quarter of 2025,” Wolfers said on Weekend Primetime.
“Then he’s talking about one quarter. So there’s one quarter and one measure that looks very strong.”
Zoom out, and the picture becomes far less clear. Other measures meant to track similar economic activity, such as gross domestic income, have been much weaker.
Earlier in the year, GDP was actually falling. Add in government shutdowns and routine data revisions, and Wolfers cautions against treating early estimates as gospel.
“Reading the entrails of the economy is always a difficult business,” he said, noting that economic data are often noisy and revised later.
Jobs, Paychecks, And The Data That Matter To People
While politicians and commentators debate growth rates, Wolfers says most Americans judge the economy by simpler questions: Can I find a job? Am I getting a raise? Does my paycheck stretch far enough?
On those fronts, the data have been less reassuring. Wolfers noted that job growth appears to have slowed and may even be slipping backward in recent months.
“It may be that we’ve actually lost jobs,” he said, pointing to emerging signs that employment momentum has weakened even as upbeat rhetoric continues.
This disconnect helps explain why consumer confidence remains depressed.
Poll after poll shows Americans feeling uneasy about their finances, despite strong-sounding economic headlines.
New polling also shows that concern carries into the future, with 45% of respondents saying they expect Trump’s policies to leave them financially worse off in 2026.
Who Benefits From Rising Profits?
Corporate profits have jumped sharply, with one quarterly estimate showing an increase of roughly $166 billion compared with just $6.8 billion in the prior quarter. But Wolfers urged caution.
“These are early estimates of numbers that we actually shouldn’t take particularly seriously,” he said, noting that such figures are often revised and do not necessarily reflect lasting or broad-based gains.
More importantly, Wolfers questioned how those gains are distributed.
Rising profits do not automatically result in higher wages or better job security for workers, especially under current policy choices.
Tariffs, Taxes, And The Affordability Squeeze
Wolfers has been especially critical of how tariffs and tax policy affect everyday costs.
He argues that tariffs take a larger share of income from low-income households than from high earners and directly push up prices on common goods.
Items like beef, coffee, jewelry, and electronics have seen notable price increases, costs that economists say are linked in part to tariffs on imports.
Wolfers described the broader policy approach as “anti–Robin Hood,” saying it amounts to “take from the poor and give to the rich.”
He pointed out that while higher-income Americans benefit from tax cuts, lower-income households face higher costs and reduced support elsewhere in the budget.
Messaging And The Grocery Store Reality
The administration’s messaging has only made matters worse, Wolfers said, particularly when affordability concerns are dismissed as political spin.
“Saying to people that affordability is a Democratic hoax is an utterly absurd way of feeling their pain,” he said.
Wolfers stressed that people experience the economy in a deeply personal way, especially at the grocery store.
“When you go into the store, you’re looking at the price tags. You’re thinking about your paycheck. You’re thinking about what you’d have to go without,” he said.
“We’re always just doing math when we’re in the store.”
That “visceral” math, as Wolfers put it, explains why glowing market headlines fail to resonate with so many households.
The Bottom Line
Wolfers does not argue that the U.S. economy is collapsing. He acknowledges that growth exists.
But he says current policies and selective storytelling result in gains that are uneven, fragile, and poorly aligned with what most Americans actually feel.
In short, it may have been labeled a fantastic year. But when global performance, wages, jobs, and prices are taken into account, Wolfers says the reality is far more complicated, and far less celebratory.