Japan and Brazil are breaking new ground in global food trade, and they’re doing it without the United States.
For the first time in history, the two nations are moving toward direct beef trade with each other.
Talks have intensified following a March state visit by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to Japan, and the shift is already rattling major meat-exporting states inside Brazil, where companies are frustrated with being left out.
Frustration With the U.S. Builds Momentum
The timing isn’t coincidental. On Aug. 1, the United States slapped steep new tariffs on Brazilian goods, including beef, causing industry disruptions and prompting countries like Japan to consider alternatives.
With global beef trade shifting, both Japan and Brazil appear ready to bypass traditional partners.
As investor Spencer Hakimian put it in a widely shared post on X: “Japan and Brazil, both fed up with the United States, are looking to begin trading beef with each other for the first time in history. America First = America Last.”
Only 3 Brazilian States Included So Far
According to a Reuters report, ongoing negotiations are currently focused only on three southern Brazilian states: Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, and Santa Catarina.
These three regions represent less than 4% of Brazil’s total beef exports. That has upset large beef-producing states like São Paulo and Mato Grosso, which together accounted for nearly 60% of the country’s beef exports last year.
“The surprise for us is that this is now moving towards approval for only three states,” said Paulo Mustefaga, head of the beef industry group Abrafrigo, which represents major meatpackers like Marfrig and several smaller exporters. “We know talks are difficult.”
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture said it is aware of Brazil’s national disease-free status and is currently conducting a risk assessment “in accordance with Japanese procedures.”
Why Only Three States?
Although Brazil received nationwide certification in May for being free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination, Japan’s risk assessment is only considering the three southern states for now.
These regions were declared disease-free earlier than the rest of the country.
Still, industry representatives hope that the deal, if finalized, will eventually expand to include more of Brazil’s key exporters.
But for now, the push to trade outside the influence of U.S. policy is already reshaping alliances in one of the world’s most important agricultural sectors.
As both nations adjust their trade strategies, this potential deal signals a wider realignment. For the U.S., the message is blunt: when “America First” means higher tariffs and isolation, others may not wait around.