Newly revised federal data show that trucking employment declined significantly over the past year, while the broader Transportation and Warehousing sector lost about 104,000 jobs year-over-year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual employment revision shows that trucking employment in 2025 was significantly weaker than originally reported.
“There were a lot fewer people working in truck transportation in 2025 than initially reported,” FreightWaves wrote in its coverage of the updated data.
In January 2025, trucking jobs were first reported at 1,532,000. After the annual revision, that number was adjusted down to 1,493,100, about 26,000 fewer jobs than previously believed.
By December 2025, the gap widened. The annual revision put the total at 1,466,900 truck transportation jobs, 46,400 fewer than had been reported just a month earlier.
The longer-term trend is even more striking. Truck transportation employment peaked in January 2023 at 1,587,800 jobs. By January 2026, the industry had fallen to 1,462,600 jobs. That marks a drop of 125,200 jobs from the peak.
The broader Transportation and Warehousing category also underperformed expectations.
Earlier projections estimated the sector would add about 6,600 jobs between December 2024 and December 2025. Instead, the revised data shows the sector lost 104,000 jobs over that period.
Warehouse employment moved in the opposite direction in the revisions, with December 2025 figures adjusted upward by more than 41,000 jobs.
Still, even warehouse jobs declined over the course of 2025 from earlier highs.
A Driver Points To Tariffs
Josh, who runs the YouTube channel The Enemy From Within and says he has spent years in the trucking industry, argues the losses were not random or cyclical.
In his view, they were “100% related uh to his um illegal tariffs that he is putting on all of these other countries products costing the American uh uh consumer more money every time they go to buy something.”
Josh said he saw the slowdown before the numbers were released.
He described empty truck stops, freight sitting without loads, and unusually weak demand during what should have been the busy holiday season.
He argues the problem started with trade policy.
“Donald Trump has cost the job loss of 100,000 truck drivers over the last year,” he said.
His argument is straightforward. Tariffs increase the cost of imported materials.
Manufacturers then face higher expenses. Some reduce production or cut jobs. Consumers pay more and spend less. Freight volumes fall. Trucking companies operating on thin margins go under.
Industry analysts have pointed to volatility in freight markets over the past few months.
“At first glance, it is difficult to see these revisions without associating them with the market volatility observed since the end of November,” said David Spencer, director of business intelligence at Arrive Logistics.
“Depending on the index, linehaul costs per mile have increased by roughly 25%, or about $0.40 per mile, over that same period. If these revisions are accurate, such a large and sudden drop in employment would strongly support the level of volatility seen over the past two months.”
In the video, Josh said many trucking companies were already operating close to the edge before tariffs intensified pressure.
He claimed brokers and large shippers had been forcing carriers to accept razor-thin margins for years.
When costs rose and freight volumes slowed, he said, companies that were barely surviving were pushed over the edge.
Job Growth Concentrated Elsewhere
The broader labor market picture is mixed. Overall U.S. job gains continue, but much of the growth is concentrated in specific sectors.
“Health care has been a perennial driver of job growth through booms and busts, and construction jobs appear to be driven by work on industrial facilities — most likely data center demand,” economist Aaron Terrazas said in an email to FreightWaves.
“That is a narrow and fragile base supporting the headline jobs stats.”
That concentration may mask weakness in freight-dependent industries such as trucking and logistics.
For drivers, the impact is personal. Company drivers face layoffs when carriers close.
Independent owner-operators may benefit temporarily from higher spot rates when capacity tightens, but volatility makes planning difficult.
Josh acknowledged the complexity of the situation. While some independent operators are seeing higher rates in the short term, he said widespread job losses are still harmful.
“Overall job losses in America is a bad thing,” he said.
The data now confirms the scale of contraction. What remains debated is the cause.
Some industry observers point to normal freight cycles after pandemic-era highs. Others cite rising costs and trade instability.
But for Josh, who has spent years on the road, the explanation is simple.
He believes the downturn in trucking employment is directly tied to tariff policy and that the effects are still unfolding.