The U.S. housing market appears to have stalled. In October, sales, new listings, and pending home contracts barely changed at all compared with the prior month and the same time last year, according to a new report from Redfin.
The median home sale price rose only 1.4% year over year to $440,523.
Existing-home sales came in at an annual rate of about 4.24 million, also little changed.
A Shift in Power
Buyers, not sellers, now hold the upper hand. The typical home sold in October went for 1.5% less than its final list price, the largest October discount since 2019.
“Many would-be homebuyers and sellers are paralyzed by high prices and economic uncertainty,” said Redfin senior economist Asad Khan.
“Home-buying activity has stabilized at below-normal levels, and while selling activity has also slowed, there are still a lot more sellers in the market than buyers.”
Redfin estimates roughly 500,000 more home sellers than buyers are actively in the market.
Why This Is Happening
The pause comes as buyers face affordability issues: mortgage rates remain much higher than pandemic lows, and sellers who bought at peak prices are still pricing homes as though demand remains strong.
Homes in current inventories are staying on the market longer; the typical home that went under contract spent 51 days on the market, a seven-day increase versus a year ago.
Commenters in online real-estate forums say the problem is clear:
“People who are trying to sell a desirable, correctly priced home are having success. Most of the homes just sitting are undesirable and/or overpriced.”
One user added, “And it’ll stay stuck until home sellers lower their prices to reasonable prices.”
They continued: “Nobody wants to become a bagholder, with rising carrying costs, worsening economic prospects, in order to fund someone else’s retirement bailout.”
Another person wrote: “Gonna continue this way for a long time until affordability improves. The math points to renting being optimal financially by a large margin.”
Not All Markets the Same
While nationally the market has plateaued, some metros diverge.
In the Midwest, median sale prices are up strongly, Cleveland (+11.6 %), Newark, N.J. (+10.9% ), and Detroit (+10.4%) reported the largest gains.
Meanwhile, other markets show declines: Jacksonville (-4%), Dallas (-3.6%), Atlanta (-2.5%), and all three Bay Area metros posted year-over-year drops. (redfin.com)
In metropolitan San Francisco, 58.5% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among metros. (redfin.com)
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers, the message is: you have more negotiating power now than you might have in recent years.
For sellers, especially those riding pandemic-era price gains or holding homes in need of updates, the warnings may be urgent: pricing matters, condition matters, and patience may matter more than ever.
If you’re considering buying or selling, expect fewer frenzied bidding wars and more realistic price discussions.
For now, the market’s not moving, and might not until prices and affordability align.