The U.S. housing market is seeing something it hasn’t experienced in decades: a massive mismatch between how many people want to sell a home and how many are actually trying to buy one.
That imbalance could result in lower prices and better deals for buyers who’ve been sitting on the sidelines.
Sellers Outnumber Buyers By Historic Margin
As of April 2025, there were 1.9 million home sellers in the U.S. and only about 1.5 million buyers, according to real estate brokerage Redfin.
That’s a 34% gap, the biggest on record. Just a year ago, that difference was only 6.5%. In 2023, there were more buyers than sellers.
Cities like Phoenix, Nashville, Las Vegas, and several in Florida and Texas are seeing the widest gaps.
In Miami, for example, there are reportedly three sellers for every one buyer.
“This is now the very beginning of a buyer market where sellers are forced to negotiate down,” real estate investor and YouTuber Graham Stephan said in a recent video.
“Homes are sitting on the market for longer.”
Phoenix Spotlight: Prices Coming Back to Earth
Jeremy Duda, a reporter with Axios Phoenix, said the shift is clearly visible in Arizona’s capital.
CBS News host Tom Hanson noted during the segment, “There are twice as many home sellers as buyers in the Phoenix Valley area,” before asking Duda why the gap is so significant and what it means for local housing prices.
“That could be, hopefully for homebuyers, lower prices… coming back to earth a little bit more,” Duda responded.
While home values in Phoenix skyrocketed over the past decade, that affordability is vanishing.
Sellers are now realizing their original asking prices may be unrealistic.
“Folks who had been starting off with these exorbitant asking prices [are] maybe coming back to reality,” Duda added.
Why Sellers Are Listing Now
Several factors are pushing more homeowners to list:
Some can’t delay a move due to divorce, job changes, or growing families.
Others want to cash in while prices are still historically high.
Rising costs of ownership, including HOA fees and insurance, are squeezing condo owners in particular.
In many cases, sellers have built up so much equity since buying years ago that they’re still walking away with a profit, even in a cooler market.
Condos Are Getting Hit Hardest
Condos are especially oversupplied.
Redfin reports an 83% surplus of condo listings compared to buyer demand.
Many condo owners are trying to exit due to spiking HOA fees and insurance premiums, especially in Florida.
Stephan noted that condos tend to lose value faster when the market cools.
“Over the last few decades, condos have lagged the appreciation of single-family homes,” he said.
Prices Are Starting To Flatten Or Fall
“National median home prices were up just 1.9% from a year ago, which, once you factor in 2.3% inflation, means that real home prices have actually started to fall,” Stephan said in his video.
When adjusted for inflation, real prices have started to decline. Some cities are already seeing clear drops:
- Oakland: -4.9%
- Dallas: -4.5%
- Jacksonville: -3%
- Austin: -2.5%
- Seattle and Denver: around -1.5%
Prices are still much higher than pre-pandemic levels, but this slowdown marks a clear shift in market power.
Mortgage Rates Still A Hurdle
Even with falling prices, affordability remains an issue. Mortgage rates are hovering near 7%, making monthly payments expensive.
The average mortgage on a median-priced home is now nearly $2,860 per month.
But buyers no longer face the same urgency or competition. The market of overbidding and waiving inspections has cooled off.
A Better Deal Could Be Coming
For buyers who can afford the current rates, this moment may offer rare leverage.
“If you’re in the market for a home, this might be the first time since 2019 where you could afford to be selective,” Stephan said.
He advised potential buyers to stick to their budgets, use fixed-rate loans, and only buy homes they plan to keep for at least 7 to 10 years.
As for the broader market, slight price drops may continue, but a crash isn’t expected.
Instead, a slow softening and longer listings could create more reasonable options for those who’ve been priced out in recent years.
“Whatever you were counting on getting for your house…you might have to lower your expectations a little bit,” Duda said.
That adjustment could finally give buyers some breathing room, and possibly their first real shot at owning a home in years.