The White House says October’s jobs and inflation numbers likely won’t be published.
That announcement has fueled speculation, including a viral post by hedge fund manager Spencer Hakimian on X, who claimed the real reason is that “inflation is 10% and we lost 100,000 jobs last month. That’s why they’re not releasing it.”
Rising Grocery Prices Add Pressure as Data Gaps Raise Eyebrows
In the meantime, everyday Americans have continued to feel the pressure. Grocery prices have been skyrocketing since President Donald Trump took office, despite his repeated promises to bring prices down “on day one.”
In states like Illinois, packaged and canned goods have jumped 37.4% and meat-based proteins are up more than 32% since 2019.
In Michigan, beef prices have surged over 50%, and eggs have more than doubled in price.
Shutdown Blamed for Missing Reports
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that the October consumer price index and jobs report are unlikely to be released because of the ongoing government shutdown.
“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt told reporters during a briefing.
She added that the missing data is “leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.”
The government shutdown, which ended on yesterday when Trump signed a funding bill into law, had halted operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other federal agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data.
Without funding, BLS was unable to carry out its usual survey processes.
While September’s jobs report may be salvaged after the government reopens, economists say October’s numbers could be lost entirely.
According to Bloomberg, “some statistics can be retroactively collected and disseminated, but others may be skipped entirely.”
The October CPI and unemployment rate are particularly at risk due to how those surveys are conducted.
Why October’s Data May Be Gone for Good
The jobs report includes two parts: one survey from businesses that tracks payrolls, and another from households to determine the unemployment rate.
The household survey is more difficult to recreate retroactively.
“I don’t think the household survey data will be published,” said Ron Hetrick, a senior labor economist at Lightcast and former BLS official.
He explained that while payroll data might still be collected from companies, the household survey relies on field workers contacting people about their job status during a specific week in October, something that wasn’t done.
Reuters had previously noted that unless the government reopened soon, there was a real chance October’s jobs report would never be released.
Former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen told Reuters, “Anything that’s monthly, with a household survey, there’s likely to be a hole.”
She added, “The unemployment rate that comes out of the Current Population Survey, there’s a good chance that might not be available either.”
Fueling Speculation Online
The missing data has fueled online speculation about a possible cover-up, as reflected in Spencer Hakimian’s viral post questioning the motives behind the lack of transparency.
The government has not confirmed those numbers, and no alternative figures from private sources have matched them. But the lack of official data has created a vacuum, making it easier for rumors and political spin to spread.
Kevin Hassett, National Economic Director, acknowledged the uncertainty, saying, “We’re going to be staring a little bit in cloudy, cloudy weather for a while until we get the data agencies back up,” according to Bloomberg.
What Happens Next?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not released a revised schedule. It could eventually combine multiple months of data into a single release once it resumes operations.
But for now, economists and policymakers are working without two of the most important indicators of economic health.
The Federal Reserve is still scheduled to meet Dec. 9–10, and may have to make decisions about interest rates without the full picture.
With no October data and no confirmed plan to release it, questions about what the numbers would have shown are likely to keep growing.