If you ask President Donald Trump how the U.S. economy is doing, he’s got a quick answer: “A+++++”
But if you ask economists or look at the latest government data, that rating doesn’t quite hold up.
Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize–winning economist, disagrees entirely.
After reviewing the newly released November jobs report, Krugman summarized the situation like this: “A+++++ my A++.”
What the Data Actually Says
After weeks of delay due to the federal government shutdown, November’s employment numbers were finally released.
The topline unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent, up from an average of 4 percent in 2024. That’s not catastrophic, but it’s enough to raise red flags among economists.
Krugman pointed to the Sahm Rule, a historically reliable early-warning indicator of recessions.
While the government didn’t release full October data due to the shutdown, estimates put October’s jobless rate around 4.5%. That puts us within “a whisker” of a recession signal, Krugman said.
In addition to the headline unemployment rate, economists also track the U-6 rate, which includes part-time workers and discouraged job seekers.
That broader measure has been climbing since Trump took office. Long-term unemployment has also risen nearly 32% since 2024, from 1.45 million to 1.91 million.
Employers did add 119,000 jobs in September, a slight improvement, but that’s still below what’s needed to maintain a stable job market.
According to NYU economist Mark Gertler, employers typically need to add between 120,000 and 150,000 jobs each month just to keep unemployment steady.
Ben Harris, a vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the current labor market is stuck in a “no hiring, no firing” zone.
“It’s tough to find a job if you don’t have one, but if you’re employed, you’re likely to keep that job. While that sounds stable, it’s actually a very precarious situation.”
And if layoffs begin, Harris warned, “they could come fast and furious.”
Is It Still Biden’s Fault?
When presidents inherit a weak economy, they usually blame their predecessor.
And some Trump allies have tried that, pointing fingers at Biden. But as Krugman noted, that excuse doesn’t hold up.
Trump entered office in January 2025 with falling inflation, low unemployment, and steady job growth. Those conditions have worsened.
Krugman argues Trump’s own policies are to blame: sweeping tariffs, aggressive deportation policies that shrink the labor force, tax cuts for the wealthy, slashed benefits for working-class families, mass layoffs of federal workers, and the dismantling of climate and agricultural investment programs.
“Trump owns this economy, because he broke it,” Krugman wrote.
Even Trump’s signature promise to revive blue-collar jobs isn’t playing out. Data shows those sectors are underperforming.
Job creation may also be overstated, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggesting official numbers could be inflated by 60,000 jobs per month.
Mixed Signals, But Mounting Risks
The economy isn’t falling off a cliff, yet. But signs are piling up.
Inflation has slowed, with the core Consumer Price Index rising 3% year-over-year through September.
That’s down from a 6.6% peak in 2022, but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Gertler warned that a drop in inflation might not be good news if it’s caused by a weakening economy.
Consumer debt has hit a record $18.59 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
While debt payments as a share of income remain historically low, delinquency rates for credit cards and personal loans have been climbing since 2021.
Harris called the situation “a flashing yellow light, not a flashing red light.”
And consumer confidence is sliding. The University of Michigan’s index dropped to 51 in November, down from nearly 72 a year earlier.
Director Joanne Hsu said people are now worried not just about prices, but about the stability of their incomes.
“It’s called ‘the paradox of thrift,’” Hsu said. “If you think dark times are ahead, it makes sense for each individual family to pull back, to save more… But if enough people do that, people are going to stop spending on a large scale.”
That can snowball into job losses and a wider slowdown.
So Which Is It?
Trump’s public message has wavered. When things look good, it’s suddenly his economy, and it’s booming.
When things sour, it becomes Joe Biden’s fault, even nearly a year into his own term.
But as Krugman put it, “It strains credulity — even for the Trump faithful — to claim that we are still in Joe Biden’s economy.”
With job growth stagnating, consumer sentiment dropping, and inflation still too high, Trump’s “A+++++” doesn’t square with reality.
For Krugman and other economists, it’s more like an “A++”, and not in a good way.