President Donald Trump has once again pitched the idea of sending Americans $2,000 rebate checks, this time claiming they would be funded by money collected through tariffs.
However, nonpartisan estimates indicate that the plan would cost approximately $600 billion per year, roughly twice the amount the new tariffs are expected to generate.
Trump Touts Payout Plan, But Estimates Raise Red Flags
Trump first floated the idea on Truth Social, writing, “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
In remarks to reporters at the White House on Nov. 10, he said:
“We’re going to issue a dividend to our middle income people and lower-income people of about $2,000, and we’re going to use the remaining tariffs to lower our debt.”
However, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonprofit that analyzes federal spending, estimates the checks would cost $600 billion per year. Tariffs introduced this year are projected to bring in only about $300 billion annually.
“Over a 10-year period, the dividends would increase deficits by $6 trillion if rebate checks are distributed annually,” the group said.
Legal and Legislative Hurdles
Trump does not have the authority to issue the payments unilaterally. Congress would need to approve any such program.
The stimulus checks issued during the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, were passed through legislation.
A bill introduced earlier this year by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) proposed $600 payments from tariff revenue. It failed to make it out of committee.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told ABC News that the idea might not mean literal checks: “The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms… tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda.”
Supreme Court Case Could Upend Tariff Revenues
The plan also faces legal uncertainty. The Supreme Court recently heard arguments about whether Trump’s sweeping tariffs, imposed under emergency powers, are constitutional.
Several justices, including Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, appeared skeptical.
If the court rules against Trump, the government could be forced to return billions in collected tariff revenue to importers, which would eliminate the funding source for any rebate.
Still, Trump remained confident. “Nobody thinks it’s going to be reversed. I think we had a very good court case,” he said.
A Familiar Proposal With Little Progress
This is not the first time Trump has pitched returning government money to taxpayers.
He previously suggested checks could come from cost savings generated by Elon Musk’s proposed Department of Government Efficiency. That idea, too, never moved forward.
Despite Trump’s repeated claims, “We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion,” he said on Truth Social, experts say the math doesn’t add up.
A $2,000 annual payout would far exceed tariff revenues and dramatically increase the national deficit unless other cuts or revenues are introduced.
For now, Trump’s proposed checks remain a political talking point without a clear path to reality.
IMAGE CREDIT: ”Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Image adjusted for layout.