President Donald Trump is losing ground with the courts, the public and even his own party, according to economist Tyler Cowen, who believes the president’s political end won’t be dramatic or defiant—just pathetic.
“An Embarrassed Kind of Pathetic Way”
“I think he will leave the scene in an embarrassed kind of pathetic way,” Cowen told Times Radio.
He added that Trump might make some “anti-democratic noises going out the door,” but won’t be able to put up much of a fight.
Cowen says Trump has alienated the judicial branch, which is pushing back against his attacks and efforts to consolidate power.
“They strongly dislike the fact that he attacks them all the time and threatens judges with impeachment,” Cowen said.
Tariffs Are “A Huge Own Goal”
Cowen also criticized Trump’s economic policies, especially his push for tariffs, calling it “one of the worst policy decisions I’ve ever seen.”
He warned that the proposed tariffs would amount to the largest tax hike in U.S. history and would damage trade relationships without bringing manufacturing back. “It would be a huge own goal,” he said.
According to Cowen, Trump has believed in tariffs for decades.
“You can find a tape of Trump, I think the year is 1988, where he’s speaking to Oprah Winfrey,” he noted, suggesting that Trump genuinely thinks tariffs are good policy, despite economic evidence to the contrary.
The End of the Great Stagnation?
Cowen is known for popularizing the term “the great stagnation,” referring to the long period of slow economic growth that began in the 1970s.
But now, he believes that era may be over, thanks to breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
“I rode in a Waymo car last night, and there was no driver. It’s clearly superior to having an Uber with a human driver,” he said.
Cowen credits mRNA vaccines and large language models with restarting real progress, saying, “We’re now entering another era of truly major technological breakthroughs.”
AI and the Future of Democracy
Cowen pushes back against the fear that AI will destroy democracy. Instead, he argues it could help fix it. “AI can help our bureaucracies work much better and then people will like their governments more again,” he said.
While he admits that AI could change how people make decisions—even in voting—he points out that people have always leaned on others, whether it was friends, media personalities or talk radio hosts.
“If you ask the AI, ‘Will the vaccines kill me?’ it gives you the right answer. They’re more objective than mainstream media.”
Why the UK Feels Stuck
Asked why the U.K. hasn’t seen the same economic boost as the U.S., Cowen pointed to innovation that benefits the world but doesn’t necessarily generate local wealth.
“You’re wonderful at producing amazing things that mostly benefit other places,” he said, pointing to the U.K.’s role in AI and vaccine development.
“The good news is you have not at all stopped being creative. In fact, you’ve upped your game.”
No Return to Pre-Trump Politics
Cowen doesn’t think American politics will go back to how they were before Trump, but he also doesn’t believe the country is doomed.
He sees this as a messy transition period with more uncertainty and weak policy. “That’s all very bad,” he said, but insists that the U.S. has the tools to adapt, especially if it embraces new technologies.
While Cowen is often described as Silicon Valley’s favorite economist, he’s quick to distinguish himself from tech leaders who support Trump.
“There’s a faction, sometimes called the tech right, that’s been very much on board,” he said.
“But it’s never been the case that most of Silicon Valley supported Trump or favored Trump.”
In the end, Cowen remains cautiously optimistic.
“If we cannot handle having more intelligence in our lives, I mean, how are we going to cope? That’s the sort of thing you would most root for—having more intelligence.”
IMAGE CREDIT: “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore, via Flickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0. Image adjusted for layout.