America’s trucking sector is starting 2026 with troubling numbers.
Several of the nation’s largest carriers are reporting serious financial losses in the fourth quarter of 2025, even during what is typically the most profitable season of the year.
Schneider National’s operating income dropped 14%, Covenant Logistics reported a net loss driven by nearly $31 million in charges and claims, and Heartland Express logged its 10th straight quarterly loss with a 26% decline in revenue.
These results signal a deeper crisis in the freight industry, driven by falling volumes, costly insurance settlements, and shrinking margins across core business segments.
One longtime trucker says this downturn is the result of failed leadership and misguided trade policies from President Donald Trump.
“The trucking industry is going straight to hell under Donald Trump’s failed leadership,” said veteran trucker Josh from the YouTube channel The Enemy From Within.
The trucker, who recently purchased his own truck and runs a small independent operation, pointed to the combination of tariffs, regulatory crackdowns, and economic mismanagement as major causes of the current collapse.
Major Carriers Post Losses in Q4
Schneider National, one of the largest trucking companies in the country, reported a 14% year-over-year drop in Q4 income from operations, falling to $36.5 million, according to Trucking Dive.
Weak freight demand and lower volumes pushed the company below its earnings guidance.
However, revenue in its truckload segment rose 9% year over year, thanks largely to its acquisition of Cowan Systems, which helped drive a 21% increase in volume.
Meanwhile, Covenant Logistics posted a net loss in Q4 despite a 6.5% increase in revenue to $295 million, according to FreightWaves.
The company was hit with nearly $19.4 million in impairment charges and $11.6 million in insurance-related claims.
CEO David Parker noted that results were roughly in line with expectations, with positives in dedicated and managed freight segments being offset by the costs of exiting unprofitable accounts and the impact of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.
Heartland Express, another major player, also reported a $19.4 million Q4 loss, its 10th straight quarterly net loss when excluding real estate gains.
The company cited a $19 million impairment charge linked to integrating the CFI fleet. Revenue dropped 26% year over year to $179 million, missing analyst expectations by $15 million.
Despite the losses, Heartland showed some sequential improvement in its operating ratio and remains focused on returning to profitability later in 2026.
“We are, however, seeing early trends of positive shifts in customer volume, certain rates, and increasing customer expectations,” CEO Mike Gerdin said.
Capacity Tightens as Spot Rates Spike
According to the January Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI), the market for transportation capacity continues to tighten.
The transportation capacity reading came in at 47.1, indicating contraction for the second straight month.
Severe winter weather and heightened regulatory enforcement, including English-language proficiency rules and restrictions on non-domiciled CDL holders, have made it harder for companies to maintain enough drivers.
Spot market rates have surged, but experts caution that this is more a reflection of immediate capacity shortages than long-term industry health.
The LMI noted that “transportation prices” hit their fastest growth rate since April 2022, driven in part by a shift from intermodal to truckload freight and just-in-time inventory strategies.
Trucker Blames Trump Policies for Collapse
In his YouTube video, Josh said he had warned for over a year that the trucking market was headed for collapse.
He recalled witnessing similar declines during Trump’s first term, arguing that nothing has changed in the second.
“Donald Trump’s tariffs have caused dramatic increases in prices for the American consumer to the point that they cannot even afford groceries anymore because Donald Trump is destroying the supply chain,” he said.
He also criticized the regulatory environment under Trump’s administration, particularly the new CDL restrictions and language requirements.
According to him, these changes are driving qualified drivers off the road for political reasons:
“This English language proficiency requirement is very heavy-handed and slanted towards getting a brown person off the road in America simply for the reason that they’re brown.”
Josh shared anecdotes of major carriers shutting down with no notice, leaving drivers stranded across the country with frozen fuel cards and no way home.
“They are the most heartless [expletive] you have ever seen,” he said.
“Drivers will wake up all over the country wherever they’re at, and they will have a message from their dispatcher or from the company saying, ‘Hey, we’re no longer in business.'”
Business Owners Try to Adapt
Despite his frustration with federal leadership, Josh said he recently bought his own truck to cut costs and stay afloat.
He emphasized that lowering expenses is critical in an economic environment where big players are collapsing under overhead.
“I’ve cleared up a minimum of $3,500 that was going out and put that in my pocket instead,” he said, explaining his move from a lease-purchase setup to truck ownership.
While he acknowledged that spot market rates have temporarily improved, he warned others not to mistake this for a full recovery.
“Even if the rates are good… it definitely indicates that there is a problem out there. If all these carriers suddenly do not have the capacity to move the freight that they used to move… then what happened to the capacity?”
Outlook for 2026
Industry analysts aren’t expecting a quick rebound. Freight volumes are still weak, companies are keeping inventory levels low because storing goods is expensive, and warehouses are once again filling up after the holiday restocking period.
Schneider has forecasted full-year 2026 earnings in the range of 70 cents to $1 per share, a cautious outlook amid ongoing instability.
Covenant said it plans to exit underperforming freight and focus on high-return operations while reducing debt.
Heartland aims to return to low- to mid-80s operating ratios over time and is hopeful that market conditions will improve later in the year.
But for many smaller operators and drivers on the ground, the damage is already being felt.
“Quarter 4 is the most profitable time of year for trucking companies and even the truck drivers… and the fact of the matter is there just wasn’t the freight volumes and freight rates to sustain these companies,” Josh said.
“If quarter 4 was bad, quarter 1 is going to be a [expletive] bloodbath.”
As the trucking industry heads deeper into 2026, frustration continues to grow among drivers and operators who feel they are bearing the brunt of federal policies while the industry struggles to stay alive.