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3471The rise of automation and artificial intelligence is already changing the job market, and someone recently asked a tough question on Reddit: “What happens in the gray zone between mass unemployment and universal basic income?”
They continued: “How long will this interim period between mass unemployment and UBI take? What will it look like? How will governments react? Are we even guaranteed a UBI? What will change on the other side of this crisis?”
Automation is hitting jobs across all sectors, from software development and manufacturing to services and low-skill roles, and even 20% permanent unemployment would be “a shock to the system,” the post warned.
The original poster also argued that liberal democracies tend to act only once a crisis becomes unavoidable, and pointed to political gridlock in the U.S. as a major obstacle to passing something like UBI, even in the face of widespread unemployment, and pointed to political gridlock in the U.S. as a major obstacle to passing something like UBI, even if mass unemployment becomes widespread.
“It would seem to me like an uphill battle against the forces of oligarchic patronage and pure government inertia,” they wrote.
The Gray Zone Might Already Be Here
One person noted, “We are currently there right now imo. The amount of people working multiple jobs, gig jobs, etc skew the statistics. The median wage hasn’t increased while all expenses have. Debt is higher than ever.”
Many others shared the view that society is already in a slow, creeping crisis that’s being ignored because it’s happening gradually.
As someone wrote, “You don’t just wake up one day to 20% unemployment.”
Official unemployment stats often miss the big picture.
“People who have given up looking for jobs and just live off of relatives or whatever, are NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE.”
The labor force participation rate in the U.S. is already around 62%.
UBI Is Far From Guaranteed
While some futurists believe UBI is a natural response to automation, many people aren’t so sure.
“Cute that you think UBI or any assistance improvements are inevitable,” someone said.
Another person was more direct: “UBI is the worst lie ever told by billionaires.”
Instead of seeing real support systems emerge, commenters expect a mix of stimulus checks, tax credits, and perhaps work-for-welfare schemes.
“UBI will be resisted by all major parties until there is severe unrest and widespread violence,” someone argued.
Elites Might Not Need the Rest of Us
A recurring fear is that once elites no longer rely on human labor, they won’t see a reason to keep large populations alive.
One person warned, “Once the rich are confident they don’t need the people for manufacturing and help positions, I guarantee they will try to cull the population.”
History Rhymes
Some pointed to the Industrial Revolution and the Great Depression as examples of big upheavals eventually leading to reform.
But others noted that those shifts came with strong labor movements and different political conditions.
“We are in a Second Gilded Age with no way out,” someone wrote.
One person referenced the Bonus Army protests of 1932, suggesting the U.S. might only act on UBI once people are camped out en masse demanding aid.
Others compared the situation to dystopian movies like Elysium or Snowpiercer, where the rich live comfortably while the masses suffer.
How Bad Could It Get?
Very bad, according to many. Common expectations include rising homelessness, hunger, and militarized crackdowns.
“People will starve, crime will go up, and the rich elites will just hire private security to insulate themselves from the rest of the population,” one person wrote.
Another added, “There will never be UBI in the USA… At some point, it will all collapse, and we won’t be able to support the massive AI centers or buy the robots.”
Others took a global view, warning that if only rich nations implement UBI, the rest of the world could become even more exploited.
“We would have adopted serfdom again, and the serfs would be the third world, even more so than now.”
What’s on the Other Side?
Even the original poster was grim in their forecast.
They predicted a period of “social upheaval and probably rioting,” followed by a watered-down version of UBI used mainly to maintain control.
As they put it, “governments will institute UBI to provide for the permanently unemployed… bolstered by new technologies to keep the society under control.”
Some commenters held out hope that local communities might organize and resist.
But most believed the only thing that would result in real change is when the elite feel personally threatened.
“UBI or other solutions will only happen when corporations and billionaires are removed from the political process.”
“A billionaire or a corporation would poison you and your children if it increased shareholder value in the 4th quarter,” one person wrote.
What This All Adds Up To
Many believe the gray zone between mass unemployment and UBI isn’t a future scenario for many people; it’s already here.
And unless something drastic changes, it may stretch on for decades.
The comments show widespread skepticism that governments will step in before the situation becomes a full-blown crisis.
If UBI ever does happen, it will likely come only after immense suffering, and possibly not at all.
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