Progressive commentator David Pakman drew a lot of attention online after pointing to a steep projected drop in U.S. tourism spending and linking it to MAGA-aligned policies.
In a post on X, Pakman wrote, “Tourism expected to be down $12.5 billion in 2025. You can’t ban, scare, and detain your way to prosperity. MAGA might not care about tourism crashing, but will they care when hotels go empty and red-state towns lose jobs?”
The post referred to a recent World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) report, which says foreign visitor spending in the U.S. is expected to drop by 7% this year, falling from $181 billion in 2024 to below $169 billion in 2025.
That’s more than $12 billion lost, with international travelers increasingly choosing other destinations.
Strong Dollar, Trump-Era Policies, and Tariffs to Blame
Julia Simpson, CEO of the WTTC, told Reuters, “Of 184 countries, the U.S. is the only one that’s seeing an absolute decline in international visitor spending. The U.S. is definitely losing its crown in this area.”
She cited the strong dollar, stricter border policies under President Donald Trump, and political tensions as major deterrents.
Recent reports show that long visa wait times, required fingerprinting for extended stays, and harsh rhetoric, including threats of annexation and border detentions, have discouraged Canadians and other travelers from visiting the U.S.
A CBS News report adds that former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urged Canadians to avoid U.S. vacations after the Trump administration imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods.
April bridge traffic at Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, a small U.S. city economically tied to its Canadian counterpart, was down 44% year-over-year.
Tourism-Dependent Communities Feeling the Pressure
While domestic travelers make up most of U.S. tourism spending, international visitors spend significantly more.
Canadians spend three times more and overseas travelers seven to eight times more per visit than Americans, according to the U.S. Travel Association.
Sault Ste. Marie’s hotel bookings are already down 77% year to date.
“If they’re not coming over and buying in our stores, then it affects us much more,” said Linda Hoath, director of the Sault Area Convention & Visitors Bureau.
Flagstaff, Arizona, another city with a strong international draw, has seen a 15% to 20% drop in foreign tourists.
“I look forward to the excitement of the international traveler coming back full steam,” said Trace Ward, head of Flagstaff’s visitor bureau.
“But until then, we’re gonna sell to whoever is interested in coming here.”
Economic Impact Could Be Long-Term
According to IMPLAN, a research firm, the ongoing slowdown could result in over 230,000 U.S. job losses, particularly in lodging and dining.
Nearly 10% of American jobs are tied to the travel industry, and international visitors spend on average $4,000 per trip.
The WTTC estimates that international visitor spending has fallen 22.5% from its pre-pandemic peak of $217 billion in 2019.
Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, said, “Shifting sentiment and perceptions of the U.S. are expected to continue to weigh heavily on travel demand.”
In response to the downturn, both Flagstaff and Sault Ste. Marie are pulling back on international marketing and focusing instead on attracting domestic travelers.
“When you don’t have a ton of funds, you’ve got to put them where you know they have a better possibility of working,” Hoath said.
Whether or not Pakman’s warning resonates politically, the numbers suggest real consequences for communities that depend on international tourism to survive.